Pacific Ethanol Stock Price Going into the Long Weekend

I personally am not an expert. I was introduced to this stock by one though. Every step of the way he's called his shots and his gains he's seen make me look like a child with a water gun. When he introduced me to this stock it was trading at 36 cents (pre 15 to 1 reverse stock split). Basically $5.40 after the split. I bought in at $3.80 range in May of 2013 and then sold when the stock capitulated to $2.80 in November 2013...and lost a bunch of money. I was so tired of watching this thing drop so much day over day and over that period the stock was basically on a slow downward trend. 

At our semi-weekly beer drinking sessions he would explain what was going on with this stock and we'd discuss the manipulation that occurred that past week and he'd pull back the curtain to what was a very interesting mix of people manipulating this stock for their gains day over day. To say it was educational would be a giant understatement. 

Immediately after I sold at $2.80 the stock pretty much started it's upward trend and that was a hard lesson for me to learn. My friend hadn't sold, but the opposite, he bought in MUCH more. To him it was an absolute no-brainer. The book value was at around $8/share, so even if it all fell apart, he'd still get paid big. When we met the next time for drinks I told him I sold. The stock had already started coming back, but all I knew of it for six months was DOWN and I couldn't take it any more.

Sell Low, Buy High, right?!??

Of course, right after I sold, within days it was back up. I eventually got back in...heh....at $8.22. The chart above shows where I sold at $2.80, then had to re-buy in at $8.22.

After I bought in I honestly thought I was cursed!! I literally bought RIGHT at the peak of the chart above and immediately (like in seconds) the stock started falling! I took a big gulp the next couple days and bought more at $7. I was not going to watch the charts for the answers anymore as that had failed me. I knew where this one was going now and I was going to Buy the Dips, man up, and just hold on. So glad I had learned the lesson.

The big lesson I learned was that when you know where the stock SHOULD be, don't get scared about the day to day moves it's making. Trust your knowledge of the company make decisions on facts, not fear. The guy who introduced me to this stock, and who will be writing some insightful articles eventually on this blog, was never terrified because he knows more about the stock and industry than 99.9% of the investors. His decisions are coming from facts. Mine were greed and fear. 

He thinks this stock is going to $40. He's YET to miss his shot - he called the $10 stock price on a fair market adjustment and he's called the stock price the whole way. I have no doubt it'll get there. 

Today he thinks we'll see low volume prior to the 3 day weekend and a potential to see the stock dip as it's easier to manipulate on low volume. At the time of this post though, we're sitting just below $23 so it's good to see it's gone the other way! So far though, we're trading on pretty low volume. Below 500k.

See you at $40. Hopefully by next earnings report!